Cheers to 2026 🥂 Why 2026 Is Being Referred to as a “Year of Recovery”

National Housing Outlook for 2026

Insights from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR)

According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), national housing conditions may improve in 2026 following several years of constrained inventory, affordability challenges, and elevated interest rates.

During the NAR Forecast Summit, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, stated that 2026 may represent a “year of recovery” for the U.S. housing market, based on current economic indicators and long-term housing fundamentals.

The insights below summarize Mr. Yun’s economic outlook and NAR’s forward-looking observations, as presented at the summit.

Key 2026 Market Observations

(As Presented by NAR)

📈 Market Recovery Outlook

According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, housing activity in 2026 is expected to improve compared to recent years, as market conditions gradually normalize and buyer confidence strengthens.

📉 Mortgage Rate Expectations

Mr. Yun noted that mortgage rates may ease from recent highs if inflation continues to cool and broader economic conditions stabilize. Even moderate rate declines could improve affordability for buyers.

🏡 Projected Increase in Home Sales

NAR forecasts suggest that national home sales activity could increase in 2026 as pent-up demand re-enters the market, particularly among first-time buyers and households that postponed purchasing decisions.

📦 Inventory Trends

Inventory levels have shown signs of improvement relative to historically low levels. Increased supply may provide buyers with more options and help reduce extreme competitive pressure seen in prior years.

💰 Home Price Movement

Rather than rapid appreciation, NAR economists anticipate more modest and sustainable price growth, contributing to a healthier balance between buyers and sellers.

🧠 Importance of Local Markets

Mr. Yun emphasized that while national trends provide important context, real estate outcomes remain highly local and are influenced by employment, population growth, and regional affordability.

What This Means for Buyers in Arizona

While national forecasts provide a helpful framework, Arizona buyers should evaluate how these trends apply locally. Market conditions can vary significantly by city, neighborhood, and price range.

For buyers already living in Arizona — as well as those relocating from other states or countries — understanding both national housing trends and local Arizona market conditions is essential when planning a purchase.

Working with a licensed Arizona REALTOR® allows buyers to interpret economic forecasts in the context of local market data, inventory levels, and pricing trends specific to where they want to live.

Thinking About Buying in Arizona in 2026?

The housing market is showing signs of renewed balance — and according to the National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist, 2026 may represent a year of recovery for real estate.

What buyers are watching as we head into 2026:

Improving inventory
Moderating mortgage rates
More balanced pricing
Greater opportunity for informed buyers

Whether you’re purchasing a primary residence, second home, or relocating to Arizona, professional guidance matters.

👉 Email Me Directly: 📧 robert.pacheco@cbrealty.com

Compliance & Forecast Disclaimer

This information is based on economic commentary and forecasts presented by the National Association of REALTORS® and its Chief Economist. Forecasts are subject to change and are not guarantees of future market performance.

This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice. All real estate decisions should be made in consultation with a licensed real estate professional and other appropriate advisors.

Source Attribution

National Association of REALTORS® — Forecast Summit
Chief Economist: Lawrence Yun
More information available at nar.realtor (search “NAR Forecast Summit”)

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